Vaughan leads Senior Open by two

Golf Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bruce Vaughan carded a four-under 66 Thursday to grab a two-stroke lead after the opening round of the U.S. Senior Open Championship at Sahalee Country Club.

Vaughan's lone win on the Champions Tour was a playoff victory over John Cook at the 2008 Senior British Open.

Loren Roberts, a four-time major winner on the Champions Tour, and amateur Tim Jackson share second place at two-under 68. Jackson, a two-time U.S. Mid- Amateur champion, was the 36-hole leader last year before fading into a share of 11th.

Bernhard Langer, who won the Senior British Open last week, posted a one-under 69. He was joined in fourth place by Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Lehman, Joe Ozaki and Michael Allen.

Vaughan played the back nine first on Friday. After hitting a tree with his tee shot, Vaughan still managed to birdie the par-five 11th. He gave that back at the 14th, where he found a bunker off the tee and came up short of the green with his second.

The 53-year-old was unable to get up and down for par from there. Vaughan got back into red figures with a birdie on the 16th. He turned at two-under after making another birdie on No. 18.

Around the turn, Vaughan rolled in back-to-back birdie efforts from the second to jump to minus-four.

Vaughan was alone atop the leaderboard at five-under after a birdie on the par-four sixth. He closed with a bogey at the last to cut his lead to two.

"I birdied probably two of the hardest holes on the golf course, Nos. 18 and 6," stated Vaughan, who is the solo leader after the first round for the first time in his Champions Tour career. "Those were probably two of the hardest holes on the golf course and I made birdie on them. That's like picking up three or four shots on everybody."

Vaughan is having a tough season, with just one top-five and four top-20 finishes. He turned his fortunes around on Thursday by hitting a lot of fairways.

"I did everything you're supposed to do, hit a lot of fairways, a few greens and made some putts," said Vaughan, who hit 12-of-14 fairways and 14-of-18 greens in regulation.

Roberts, who played five groups ahead of Vaughan, opened with four straight pars. He birdied two of the next three holes to get to minus-two.

After three straight pars around the turn, Roberts got to three-under with a birdie on the par-five second. He gave that stroke back with a bogey on the sixth. Roberts parred the last three to end two back.

"I was happy with the way I played. I hit a lot of good shots," Roberts said. "I only hit one bad tee shot at six, and made a bogey, and bad tee shot at nine, my last hole, but got it up and down. All in all, I played as solid as I played in a while today."

Jackson parred the first four holes, then dropped in a birdie effort on the par-three fifth. He followed that with a birdie on the seventh.

Jackson remained at minus-two until the 16th. He stumbled to a bogey on the par-four 16th, but fought right back with a birdie on 17 to end at minus-two.

"We have to do what we did last year, play one side at a time here, because the trees are hanging out and the hole locations are right over the mounds and you've got to be pretty precise," Jackson explained. "You've got to be patient."

Tom Watson, a three-time runner-up at this championship, posted an even-par 70. He was joined in ninth place by Jay Haas, Scott Simpson and local favorite Fred Couples, who was born in Seattle.

NOTES: Defending champion Fred Funk opened with a six-over 76 and is tied for 68th with among others Ben Crenshaw, Andy Bean and Gil Morgan...The last first-round leader to win this title was Peter Jacobsen in 2004...Corey Pavin's streak of 12 straight rounds in the 60s was snapped as he shot 72.

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Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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